Feel The August Slowdown?

[twinkerbell]

In terms of sales that is..

some affiliates do...and affiliate programs as well

[ecchi]

|chainsaw| AAAAAAAAAGGGGGHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Every year at about this time we get this question. And every year I make the same point. But twelve months later someone else brings it up again.

There are only two reasons you may be experiencing a summer slowdown:

1. You are a newbie, and don't fully know what you are doing yet (in which case don't worry about it, it takes time to learn).

2. Your business is badly designed: You either do not know how to run your sites without loosing business in the summer, or you do know and you are too damn lazy to do anything about it. If you have been in business a few years and are still suffering from the "summer slowdown" then maybe you should consider getting out of running porn websites and into something you are good at.

Now if previous years are anything to go by, several people will now see this thread, read the first post, and reply without bothering to read the rest of the thread, and will be wondering why everyone is snickering at them because the said that they were experiencing lower sales in August!

|chainsaw| |chainsaw| |chainsaw| |chainsaw|

[xxxloger]

well said

[LB]

I disagree ... summerslow down for me and other high sale volume webmasters I deal closely with is a statistical fact.

Sure if you are doing a paltry 1-2 sales a day you can't read anything into your stats much, but for webmasters doing vastly more than that the stats rarely lie.

That being said August always starts to pick up, and yet again this year it has picked up by a similar percentage to the last 5 years.

[Toby]

It depends a great deal on your target market. Historically, July and August have been some of my better months.

College students and parents with children at home all Summer are not my primary target demographic.

[Jel]

What LB and Toby said

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by LB

I disagree ... summerslow down for me and other high sale volume webmasters I deal closely with is a statistical fact.

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

[Ramster]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

"shit at webmastering"? Bullshit! Summer slow down is a FACT. Does it effect all of us? No, absolutely not. I for one use to never be effected by the summer slow down as a webmaster. I worked hard year round making free sites and submitting galleries. In the summer you get more exposure at TGPs as some webmasters take time off.

Re Summer Slowdown:
I own several paysites and have a ton of affiliates and I can tell you what LB said is correct. High volume sites will in fact experience a summer slow down. Imagine owning a paysite that gets 50,000 hits a day to it's tours. With so many webmasters pushing traffic that volume does slow in the summer and hence so do sales. This has nothing to do with "shit at webmastering", it has to do with an affiliate program that rely on outside sources for traffic.

This is not true for EVERY paysite of course but the majority it is.

[LD]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering.

That statement makes no sense. I think what you are saying is that the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing.

Of course if you make all the money you need to make in a given period of time, it doesn't really matter if part of that period is slower than others.

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by LD

That statement makes no sense. I think what you are saying is that the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing.

Well I did not use all those ten dollar words you used, but if you want it in those terms:
Strategic marketing, when used in relation to adult webmastering refers to writing ads for your sponsors (or your own site) and also sourcing traffic for your site. If you write ads only to attract a certain type of person (eg middle age divorced and lonely men) or you source your traffic from only one area (eg North America) then you are throwing away money. Think of WallMart only serving middle age men, and refusing to take money from anyone else! One sign that you are doing this is the summer slowdown, it means you are taking money from people who buy less during the time it is summer in the northern hemisphere, but not from those whose low spending time is elsewhere. If you threw your net wider, people who's 'slack buying period' was some other time of year would counteract the summer slowdown effect. It would also mean you would be making more money overall (both in the good and bad months).

To put it mathematically - If there is a noticeable difference between your best month and your worst month then:
Money you should be earning in a year = money you do earn in a year X (money you earn in your best month / money you earn in your worst month)

Or in other words saying "the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing" is the business school graduates way of saying "if you are not a newbie and you are still experiencing a summer slowdown then you are shit at webmastering".

I think my version was more succinct.

[Mike-mijen]

Boys Boys..Now both of you to your rooms until you can be nice to each other!

[ecchi]

Originally Posted by Ramster

"shit at webmastering"? Bullshit! Summer slow down is a FACT. Does it effect all of us? No, absolutely not. I for one use to never be effected by the summer slow down as a webmaster. I worked hard year round making free sites and submitting galleries

You cannot claim that what I say is bullshit then in the next sentence provide evidence that what I said was true! The reason you do not feel it is because you know what you are doing. The reason other feel it, is because they don't!

If instead of feeling offended when reading my original post, the people who do feel the summer slowdown thought "Well he may be right, I'll look into it, and if he is right, I'll also look into how I can change my ways", then they would be making more money next year. However the sad fact is that many people who feel the summer slowdown will read my first post and think "Asshole, who does Ecchi think he is calling me a shit webmaster". And those people will go on making the same mistakes, and making less money than they could be making. Then when we have our next recession, and everyone's profits drop, those people's already low profits will drop low enough to send them into bankruptcy. They are out of business and if they are unlucky, out of a home too!

Short version: As a webmaster, the most important tool you have is your brain USE IT!

Originally Posted by Ramster

Imagine owning a paysite that gets 50,000 hits a day to it's tours. With so many webmasters pushing traffic that volume does slow in the summer and hence so do sales. This has nothing to do with "shit at webmastering", it has to do with an affiliate program that rely on outside sources for traffic.

The worst thing you can do when things get bad is blame someone else. If the paysite's only form of traffic is shit webmasters who cannot think further than North America for customers, then it is not the affiliate's fault, and STOP BLAMING THEM. It is the paysite's fault for not thinking up ways to attract more of the better kind of affiliate (preferably without loosing the bad ones at the same time), and for not coming up with other income streams, other than just using affiliates. You prove my point with your last line.

Originally Posted by Ramster

This is not true for EVERY paysite of course

Most important thing for every businessman to know, both sponsors and affiliates (and everyone else in business):
When things get bad, when business is slow, it is NOT the fault of the seasons, it is NOT the fault of any other external influence, it is NOT the fault of surfers or affiliates or any other person you think of. It is the fault of ONE person, and ONE person only - YOU. Even if, for example, your server goes down - it is not your host's fault, it is your fault for using a shit hosting company. Sure some mistakes are unavoidable, but when they happen DON'T blame someone else, accept the blame, learn from it, and move on.

The day you realise that everything relies on you, everything that works well is to your credit, and everything that fucks up is your fault, is the day that you start making your first million.

But if you never learn this, then you had better start studying "chapter twelve law", because one day you are going to need it.

[Ramster]

Wow, your ignorance is in-fucking-credible.

Originally Posted by ecchi

You cannot claim that what I say is bullshit then in the next sentence provide evidence that what I said was true! The reason you do not feel it is because you know what you are doing. The reason other feel it, is because they don't!

NO. I agreed with LB. What I said was as I webmaster I did not feel much of a slow down because I was not making 100 sales a day. When I became a pay site owner with a much higher volume in sales I DID feel a slow down. I'm not talking 30% but each summer there was a slight drop in sales for about 1.5-2 months then it picked back up in late August.

Originally Posted by ecchi

If instead of feeling offended when reading my original post, the people who do feel the summer slowdown thought "Well he may be right, I'll look into it, and if he is right, I'll also look into how I can change my ways", then they would be making more money next year. However the sad fact is that many people who feel the summer slowdown will read my first post and think "Asshole, who does Ecchi think he is calling me a shit webmaster". And those people will go on making the same mistakes, and making less money than they could be making. Then when we have our next recession, and everyone's profits drop, those people's already low profits will drop low enough to send them into bankruptcy. They are out of business and if they are unlucky, out of a home too!

Wasn't offended at all. I just read your post and thought wow. Yes some of the slow down is because as webmasters we vacation too and maybe work less in the spring and summer. Those that keep working steady and work smarter do better.

Originally Posted by ecchi

Short version: As a webmaster, the most important tool you have is your brain USE IT!

The worst thing you can do when things get bad is blame someone else. If the paysite's only form of traffic is shit webmasters who cannot think further than North America for customers, then it is not the affiliate's fault, and STOP BLAMING THEM. It is the paysite's fault for not thinking up ways to attract more of the better kind of affiliate (preferably without loosing the bad ones at the same time), and for not coming up with other income streams, other than just using affiliates. You prove my point with your last line.

WOW. So as a pay site owner with affiliates I need to ask the top review sites on the net, many of the top tgps on the net, all the pornstar sites owners, all the link list owners and other affiliates who do gallery submits to find a way to get non North American customers? Ummmm, ok. Or should I just close my sites to affiliates? I mean if they can't send me GOOD traffic YEAR ROUND then why have them right?

Originally Posted by ecchi

Most important thing for every businessman to know, both sponsors and affiliates (and everyone else in business):
When things get bad, when business is slow, it is NOT the fault of the seasons, it is NOT the fault of any other external influence, it is NOT the fault of surfers or affiliates or any other person you think of. It is the fault of ONE person, and ONE person only - YOU. Even if, for example, your server goes down - it is not your host's fault, it is your fault for using a shit hosting company. Sure some mistakes are unavoidable, but when they happen DON'T blame someone else, accept the blame, learn from it, and move on.

So if I lose my number 1 spot in google it's my fault? (it might have been, but maybe not too... google is a bitch).

Ad so the next time my host goes done I have no one to blame but myself because I use a "shit hosting company"? I guess I better drop my host, MojoHost, and find a new hosting company that never ever ever goes down.

Originally Posted by ecchi

The day you realise that everything relies on you, everything that works well is to your credit, and everything that fucks up is your fault, is the day that you start making your first million.

But if you never learn this, then you had better start studying "chapter twelve law", because one day you are going to need it.

Most of this is true

[ecchi]

Ramster - I'll not bother arguing with you, I'll just wait until the next dip in the economy then buy your domain names for a song from whatever your local equivalent of the "official receiver" is, then I'll make all the money you would have been making if you were not so pig headed and desperately ego driven.

[Greenguy]

Call me a poor planning newbie, because my sales for this month SUCK!

[tickler]

First week was pretty good, about +20% over yearly average.

This week is almost completely dead. Looking at a bunch of WM referrals(including a couple of whales) they are all doing shit as well.

[Jel]

I'm a shit webmaster because I cane it all year long with sales, but experience a dip in the summer? lmao.

Example #1: Do 30k 9 months a year, but see a 35% dip for 3 months of the year (only making $19500 each of those 3 months).

Example #2: Target a wider, but ultimately lower producing variety of surfers, and do a solid $25k per month all year long, with no dip in the summer.

Who's the shit webmaster that can't use his brain?

Spot on points about assuming 100% responsibility though, couldn't agree more

[LB]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Yes, but the point I was making is it is only a statistical fact if you are shit at webmastering. If you know what you are doing, your methods of getting traffic would not all (or mostly) be "northern hemisphere", and you would also be targeting markets that are good in summer (like Toby mentioned). So you would be making about as much money in the summer as in the winter.

The vast majority of signups still come from the US, so unless you are targeting a different market entirely you are going to be at the mercy of your market to at least some extent.

Suggesting that webmasters can target other markets or use different methods to increase profits during the summer period is all fine and dandy, but it doesn't disprove the existance of summer slowdown in the North American market.

Also calling webmasters who are exposed to the US market and suffer some form of slowdown during summer ... 'shit at webmastering' is provocative and isn't all that helpful. If you have some methods you employ to avoid the summer slowdown effect then by all means share with the rest of us

[LB]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Well I did not use all those ten dollar words you used, but if you want it in those terms:
Strategic marketing, when used in relation to adult webmastering refers to writing ads for your sponsors (or your own site) and also sourcing traffic for your site. If you write ads only to attract a certain type of person (eg middle age divorced and lonely men) or you source your traffic from only one area (eg North America) then you are throwing away money. Think of WallMart only serving middle age men, and refusing to take money from anyone else! One sign that you are doing this is the summer slowdown, it means you are taking money from people who buy less during the time it is summer in the northern hemisphere, but not from those whose low spending time is elsewhere. If you threw your net wider, people who's 'slack buying period' was some other time of year would counteract the summer slowdown effect. It would also mean you would be making more money overall (both in the good and bad months).

To put it mathematically - If there is a noticeable difference between your best month and your worst month then:
Money you should be earning in a year = money you do earn in a year X (money you earn in your best month / money you earn in your worst month)

Or in other words saying "the effects of a statistical fact, (or more precisely a statistical trend), can be countered by strategic marketing" is the business school graduates way of saying "if you are not a newbie and you are still experiencing a summer slowdown then you are shit at webmastering".

I think my version was more succinct.

If you wish to understand the maths behind ratios and deviations from a statictical trend then here is some reading for you...

http://www.buildinganempire.com/poisson2.html

[tickler]

I guess the bottom line as far as porn WMs is that you really need surfers with that can use CC, which pretty much means the north american surfer.

Yes, I do get sales from Australia, New Zealand, GB, and some of the other English speaking countries. I even get a fair number from SMS billings in Europe, and some Asian countries. But a lot of my best converting sponsors(which are the ones that I push mainly) are still lacking in being able to make sales for me from other countries at worth while ROI ratios so I don't bother.

Tell me where to push 1 million Turkish surfers a month, or 10 million Indian surfers. I keep testing sponsors for their ability to process, but it's almost better to .htaccess deny them.

In other words the surfers are out there based on summer/winter, but the ability to actually be able to make money off them is still very limited. Even the rules in a euro country like Germany are insane.

Bottom line for me is that I need to make money for my effort. A sponsor basically doesn't really care where the traffic comes from, unless their BW costs are not worth the effort. |tomato|

[Ramster]

Originally Posted by ecchi

Ramster - I'll not bother arguing with you, I'll just wait until the next dip in the economy then buy your domain names for a song from whatever your local equivalent of the "official receiver" is, then I'll make all the money you would have been making if you were not so pig headed and desperately ego driven.

Ego has nothing to do with it. I just disagree with you, nothing more. Saying there is no summer slow down when many webmasters see it summer in and summer out. Are they stupid? I guess according to you they are. But maybe their sites are driven off American traffic, who knows.

Beside, arguing can be productive at times. And sure no problem, when I go bankrupt I'll be sure to drop you note

[Cleo]

Well so far this month has been totally shit for me.

I could probably make more money doing a street juggling act and I can't juggle at all.

[RedCherry]

Originally Posted by Toby

It depends a great deal on your target market. Historically, July and August have been some of my better months.

College students and parents with children at home all Summer are not my primary target demographic.

August historically is one of my better months too.
My worst are Jan/Feb/March historically, so I figure they are saving up to pay taxes, lol. But starting this year in Feb, every month has been better than last year, so even the winter slump is going away.

Some of that might be that I'm working a LOT more hours now, and doing more things to get surfers to my sites in order to grow my income.

[twinkerbell]

so sorry to have made this post...only wish to hear your august sales experience...peace!

[LD]

I have actually had a slight increase in sales. This year in general has been pretty much shit for me, though.