Industry Trends

johnnybg · 2006-09-14, 09:33 AM

For a long time I wanted to share my thoughts about industry trends, and to try to find the direction in which I should proceed with my business.

I hope that you'll bear with me in this. I don't want to step on any toes, and I don't want any flaming contests. I would much appreciate your comments - I want to learn from your experience.

1. Too much free porn
OK, this was discussed in length on many boards. I think that there IS too much free stuff available, and that's our fault - we give away hundreds of free sites and galleries daily. The TGP2 movement tried to rectify this but it wasn't accepted by big players. That's understandable - why give up something that works for them? I wouldn't.

The question is - is there any way to make a cut and to suit all sides of the equation?

I mean, common business logic dictates that when there is shortage the prices go up. If we manage somehow to cut free stuff, then prices would go up on paysites? Right? Since number of horny surfers goes up exponentially, as new surfers come, just by keeping free stuff at current level would be enough.

2. Too much sponsors
Well, affiliate programs surface almost daily. While this is no problem for affiliates who get more options and quality, this is a problem for program owners. Maybe program owners could speak of their problems? I am just an affiliate, so I can't see the whole picture.

The thing is that sponors are routinely offering free stuff themselves, and some of them probably just because everyone and their mothers do the same. Obviously, that increases the total of free stuff.

3. P2P
This thing got out of control. There is vast amount of porn downloadable for free on P2P networks. I believe that there isn't single adult DVD that couldn't be downloaded for free. Also, paysite rips are also available, with delay of week or two.

What can we do about it? I can't think of anything.

4. Slow development
I think that somehow, this extremely dynamic market is not followed by development of marketing techniques. It looks like webmasters are stuck with horizontal banners and that "CLICK HERE NOW" is the state-of-the-art copywriting. Is it really enough to put tits and ass up front and it will sell by itself? I know it was the case several years ago. The thing I know is that the same TGP gallery with 10 sales in 1999 wouldn't sell shit today.

TGPs and Link Lists list almost the same stuff as decade ago (except for movies). Only new development are Blogs. Is there any other form available for us? I run paysite reviews site, and there are plenty of others doing the same thing.

So to get back to eternal question: how to minimize free stuff and maximize selling?

DJilla · 2006-09-14, 10:09 AM

You've obviously outlined many of the perceived problems that have already been largely discussed and agreed on. Now what can be done about it? IMHO, not much! Once porn was wrestled from the hands of gangsters and thrown into the free market, those forces took firm control. This means more for less and competition on the level of disposable razors.

I think what you can look forward to is a severe consolidation down the road both for sponsors and affiliate sites. The winners will be based on branding and traffic and of couse superior marketing. Every month you can see how difficult it is for a new sponsor to really rise up. I think soon new entries will be wasting their time and money until a new twist develops and gives the market a "new product" to work with.

If I had to guess where this new product or approach would come from I would say that:

1) It might be found in the customization of webcam models/sites to their surfer relationships one to one. I can see that models more and more might develop stronger relationships with the surfers that are attracted to them and porn sites would grow around these relationships to include greater personalization and content delivered directly to an individual member. All things that are going on now but just to a greater degree and it will reflect an extremely loyal retention base.

2) I've mentioned it here in many posts but the subject never seems to gain traction. But, the projected trend to wireless devices as the primary vehicle for internet content I think will turn this biz on its ear though its still not exactly clear to me... how!

3) Finally, I think membership to porn sites will increase exponentially as new countries come online in either the wired sense or the freedom to surf sense. As populations come on line in greater number, novice surfers will begin joining in droves again until they figure out the free angles.

jayeff · 2006-09-14, 11:32 AM

Governments have tried to interfere with so-called Free Market Economics and usually get burned. Whether or not your perceptions about free porn, too many sponsors, etc are correct, really doesn't matter. There is absolutely nothing to be done about it. Although it takes time, effort and investment to be successful in this business, the reality is that entry can involve zero cost for affiliates and relatively little for sponsors. That is not likely to change, if at all, any time soon.

P2P is something else: it is bad news and it could be dealt with. But you are not going to convince the majority to take any effective action: some kid themselves it actually works for them; some do try; some believe the effort isn't worthwile; and most simply don't care. Online porn is not exactly bursting at the seams with professional business people.

And that last comment lies at the heart of your closing remarks. The last major development was the introduction of live video in around '97 or '98. Everything since has been tweaking and feeding more off each other: TGP's and Links Lists make it more expensive to submit and harder to monetize submissions; traffic prices creep up while quality declines; sponsors increase minimum oayouts; etc, etc.

Almost everyone in this business survives by climbing onto over-crowded bandwagons. They learn the absolute minimum necessary to put up whatever sites are called for, but they rarely extend their technical skills beyond that and most wouldn't dream of learning anything about business or marketing. If it involves effort and isn't all but guaranteed to produce results overnight, forget it.

You can't do much about that either. It is changing and will continue to change as the industry matures. You can try to encourage people to learn more about their business, but until doing so becomes a bandwagon in its own right, you will not get too many takers.

2006-09-14, 09:33 AM	#1
johnnybg I want to set the record straight - I thought the cop was a prostitute Join Date: May 2004 Location: Serbia & Montenegro Posts: 292	Industry Trends For a long time I wanted to share my thoughts about industry trends, and to try to find the direction in which I should proceed with my business. I hope that you'll bear with me in this. I don't want to step on any toes, and I don't want any flaming contests. I would much appreciate your comments - I want to learn from your experience. 1. Too much free porn OK, this was discussed in length on many boards. I think that there IS too much free stuff available, and that's our fault - we give away hundreds of free sites and galleries daily. The TGP2 movement tried to rectify this but it wasn't accepted by big players. That's understandable - why give up something that works for them? I wouldn't. The question is - is there any way to make a cut and to suit all sides of the equation? I mean, common business logic dictates that when there is shortage the prices go up. If we manage somehow to cut free stuff, then prices would go up on paysites? Right? Since number of horny surfers goes up exponentially, as new surfers come, just by keeping free stuff at current level would be enough. 2. Too much sponsors Well, affiliate programs surface almost daily. While this is no problem for affiliates who get more options and quality, this is a problem for program owners. Maybe program owners could speak of their problems? I am just an affiliate, so I can't see the whole picture. The thing is that sponors are routinely offering free stuff themselves, and some of them probably just because everyone and their mothers do the same. Obviously, that increases the total of free stuff. 3. P2P This thing got out of control. There is vast amount of porn downloadable for free on P2P networks. I believe that there isn't single adult DVD that couldn't be downloaded for free. Also, paysite rips are also available, with delay of week or two. What can we do about it? I can't think of anything. 4. Slow development I think that somehow, this extremely dynamic market is not followed by development of marketing techniques. It looks like webmasters are stuck with horizontal banners and that "CLICK HERE NOW" is the state-of-the-art copywriting. Is it really enough to put tits and ass up front and it will sell by itself? I know it was the case several years ago. The thing I know is that the same TGP gallery with 10 sales in 1999 wouldn't sell shit today. TGPs and Link Lists list almost the same stuff as decade ago (except for movies). Only new development are Blogs. Is there any other form available for us? I run paysite reviews site, and there are plenty of others doing the same thing. So to get back to eternal question: how to minimize free stuff and maximize selling? __________________ Teen Porn Site Blog Johnny's Porn Nesa (aka johnnybg)

2006-09-14, 10:09 AM	#2
DJilla You can now put whatever you want in this space :) Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 525	You've obviously outlined many of the perceived problems that have already been largely discussed and agreed on. Now what can be done about it? IMHO, not much! Once porn was wrestled from the hands of gangsters and thrown into the free market, those forces took firm control. This means more for less and competition on the level of disposable razors. I think what you can look forward to is a severe consolidation down the road both for sponsors and affiliate sites. The winners will be based on branding and traffic and of couse superior marketing. Every month you can see how difficult it is for a new sponsor to really rise up. I think soon new entries will be wasting their time and money until a new twist develops and gives the market a "new product" to work with. If I had to guess where this new product or approach would come from I would say that: 1) It might be found in the customization of webcam models/sites to their surfer relationships one to one. I can see that models more and more might develop stronger relationships with the surfers that are attracted to them and porn sites would grow around these relationships to include greater personalization and content delivered directly to an individual member. All things that are going on now but just to a greater degree and it will reflect an extremely loyal retention base. 2) I've mentioned it here in many posts but the subject never seems to gain traction. But, the projected trend to wireless devices as the primary vehicle for internet content I think will turn this biz on its ear though its still not exactly clear to me... how! 3) Finally, I think membership to porn sites will increase exponentially as new countries come online in either the wired sense or the freedom to surf sense. As populations come on line in greater number, novice surfers will begin joining in droves again until they figure out the free angles. __________________ Submit Free Sites, Blogs, Movies, TGP's, Triple XXX Info

2006-09-14, 11:32 AM	#3
jayeff Just because I don't care doesn't mean I don't understand! Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 95	Governments have tried to interfere with so-called Free Market Economics and usually get burned. Whether or not your perceptions about free porn, too many sponsors, etc are correct, really doesn't matter. There is absolutely nothing to be done about it. Although it takes time, effort and investment to be successful in this business, the reality is that entry can involve zero cost for affiliates and relatively little for sponsors. That is not likely to change, if at all, any time soon. P2P is something else: it is bad news and it could be dealt with. But you are not going to convince the majority to take any effective action: some kid themselves it actually works for them; some do try; some believe the effort isn't worthwile; and most simply don't care. Online porn is not exactly bursting at the seams with professional business people. And that last comment lies at the heart of your closing remarks. The last major development was the introduction of live video in around '97 or '98. Everything since has been tweaking and feeding more off each other: TGP's and Links Lists make it more expensive to submit and harder to monetize submissions; traffic prices creep up while quality declines; sponsors increase minimum oayouts; etc, etc. Almost everyone in this business survives by climbing onto over-crowded bandwagons. They learn the absolute minimum necessary to put up whatever sites are called for, but they rarely extend their technical skills beyond that and most wouldn't dream of learning anything about business or marketing. If it involves effort and isn't all but guaranteed to produce results overnight, forget it. You can't do much about that either. It is changing and will continue to change as the industry matures. You can try to encourage people to learn more about their business, but until doing so becomes a bandwagon in its own right, you will not get too many takers.