Industry Effects Of 1 Million New Webmasters?

[kristian]

This is of course a hypothetical question. I'm curious to know what many of you think on the topic of new entrants to the biz. If 1 million newbie webmasters entered the industry today, what would be the long-term effects? More specifically, let's assume these are only submitters, ppc campaigners, and webmasters setting up new tgps and link lists.

This is a big question, I know.

Do you think there's enough room for that many new webmasters? Maybe it could be detrimental for the industry? Would it create too much free porn? Would it create any more free porn at all? Could any one of these new webmasters make even close to their current industry counterparts?

What do you think?

[Cleo]

Gold rush is over, industry is full.

Already way too much "samples" available and it hurts sales. Already way too many people submitting their stuff to be listed so it is hard to get listed.

Go away, go home, nothing to see here.

[Greenguy]

Originally posted by Cleo
Gold rush is over, industry is full. ...and has been since 2000 :D

[amadman]

I don't think there is as many new people getting in and making it now.

With stricter rules, No freehosts, partner accounts, visa regs, avs falling,oversaturation, ect.. It is not as easy to get started as it used to be.

So, I think it would hurt. But would get thinned down rather quickly. Because it would be that much harder on them too.

[kristian]

I think we can expect a rise in new entrants. This is why I ask. I think it's going to be the topic of much heated conversation over the next 2 years.

The barriers to entry are low (minimal setup costs, low knowledge requirment). Unemployment is set to rise in both the U.S and Europe. The legion of homeworkers is a steady upward trend. Popularity of boards such as this - which offer support, education, and encouragement for newbie webmasters - is on the rise. And so on.

Every organisational, cultural, and economic indicator I can bring to mind points to a rise in new entrants.

So the interesting question is how they will impact on the industry. Will it raise overal industry earnings? Or will it dilute per worker earnings right across the board?

I have my own theories but I'm more interested in what you guys think.

[Greenguy]

kristian - I'm gonna use you as an example, so bare with me for a bit :)

When did you get into the industry?

[kristian]

Originally posted by Greenguy
kristian - I'm gonna use you as an example, so bare with me for a bit :)

When did you get into the industry?

OK, cool. :)

March, 2002.

EDIT -- Sorry July, 2001 :)

[Greenguy]

Well, then my little snipit about 2000 being the year things filled up was not that far off :)

I'm too lazy to go look for exact threads on old boards, but I do remember talking about an increase of webmasters back in 2000 & what effects they'd have.

I guess my point is that for some, the rush of news webmasters is not a new thing & for others, it is :D

[Ramster]

I think there will always be new webmasters entering the industry. But as already mentioned it is much harder to make money now. Getting listed is a bitch. TGP listings are near impossible for newbies unless they are ready to spend money. Link lists are getting to the point of TGPs now too.

More free porn? The only way that will be is with the opening of new TGPs and LL. But then they will be showing the same stuff the people that have been around for awhile are showing and they will not gain bookmarkers because of it and hence there will be no more free porn, just more places to see the same thing.

Maybe it'll frustrate surfers into buying . |bananna|

[kristian]

Originally posted by Greenguy
Well, then my little snipit about 2000 being the year things filled up was not that far off :)

I'm too lazy to go look for exact threads on old boards, but I do remember talking about an increase of webmasters back in 2000 & what effects they'd have.

I guess my point is that for some, the rush of news webmasters is not a new thing & for others, it is :D

Hmmm... ok :)

[graphicsbytia]

One thing you haven't considered is the percentage of new surfers also rises which helps.

Newbies have always been a problem to the effectivness of the adult market.

I'm going to say something that may be a little controversial here, but it's what I think.

In my opinion, adult webmaster boards are the problem. They promote link lists and tgp's as the ultimate source of traffic. Link lists and tgp are also the easiest way to get traffic, so a newbie will see this as an easy way to promote the sponsors.

If you'll notice, many of the owners and mods on adult webmaster boards are link list and tgp owners, so naturally they'll promote the type of traffic that benefits them the most.

Now, I'm not saying that link list and tgp traffic are bad.. in fact many webmasters do very well with it.. but consider all the newbie traffic they attract that the newbie doesn't do well with.. it's a lot. You hear it every day... newbies saying they get thousands of hits with no sales. Those thousands of hits are just from one newbie.. multiply that by thousands of newbies that are in the same situation. That's a lot of free porn that's not getting paid for.

Well.. I've said my piece.. and I'm sure there will be debate on this opinion..

so... what do you all think?

[kristian]

Another factor to consider is the growth of the cumsumer.

If 1 million new webmasters enter the market and 1 million new sufers begin comsuming porn, will there be any negative effects on the industry?

[kristian]

Originally posted by graphicsbytia
One thing you haven't considered is the percentage of new surfers also rises which helps.

Great minds think alike :)

I dont personally think adult webmaster boards boost the number of new entrants in any significant way. What I think they do is prolongue the lifecycle of the entrant.

Rising unemployment, growing popularity of homeworking, increased broadband access, minimum wage legislation, popularity of viewing porn itself. Thesse, I think, do more to promote "getting into" the biz. Boards such as GG&J give newbies a usually friendly home, an education, the promise of riches, and so make their stay in the biz that bit longer.

EDIT : Boards will, I think, have an indirect impact on the number of newbies, but not the number of new entrants. These boards make newbies stay longer so, obviously, there will be more newbies on the whole.

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by kristian
Another factor to consider is the growth of the cumsumer.

If 1 million new webmasters enter the market and 1 million new sufers begin comsuming porn, will there be any negative effects on the industry?

I don't see why it would, do you? The growth is healthy and even and what it should be.. what's not right is the way the industry runs itself

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by kristian
Great minds think alike :)

I dont personally think adult webmaster boards boost the number of new entrants in any significant way. What I think they do is prolongue the lifecycle of the entrant.



Let me ask you this.. if a webmaster did this on his own with no help from a webmaster board.. where would he likely get his traffic from?

[kristian]

Originally posted by graphicsbytia
Let me ask you this.. if a webmaster did this on his own with no help from a webmaster board.. where would he likely get his traffic from?

I got my initial traffic from link lists and tgps. I figured out there must be money in posting porn because there was so much of it. I then found some useful articles (not posted on forums). I believe one was written by shemp. Next I found myself a sponsor.

In my case, what got me into the industry was I'd sold my business, and I wanted to work from home. In a way I was unemployed. I would probably still be here now, but the boards have provided encouragement, friends, and knowledge. The boards, however, were not the factor contributing to my entry.

Again, I think boards do more to sustain the new entrants rather than produce them. :)

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by kristian
I got my initial traffic from link lists and tgps. I figured out there must be money in posting porn because there was so much of it. I then found some useful articles (not posted on forums). I believe one was written by shemp. Next I found myself a sponsor.

In my case, what got me into the industry was I'd sold my business, and I wanted to work from home. In a way I was unemployed. I would probably still be here now, but the boards have provided encouragement, friends, and knowledge. The boards, however, were not the factor contributing to my entry.

Again, I think boards do more to sustain the new entrants rather than produce them. :)

ok :) but I don't think we're talking about the same thing here.. you're talking about new people entering the market.. I'm talking about new people learning the market from webmaster boards.. and since you started the thread, I'll admit I got off topic ;)

[kristian]

Originally posted by graphicsbytia
ok :) but I don't think we're talking about the same thing here.. you're talking about new people entering the market.. I'm talking about new people learning the market from webmaster boards.. and since you started the thread, I'll admit I got off topic ;)

We are talking about the same thing. And I agree with you in essence :)

I think boards prolongue the stay of many webmasters in the industry. They will even give some surfers the initial idea to join. I just think they represent no significant percentage of the reason most surfers have for becoming entrants. I'm more inclined to cite unemployment or the rising popularity of homeworking coupled with that of viewing porn.

So we do agree really :)

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by kristian
We are talking about the same thing. And I agree with you in essence :)

I think boards prolongue the stay of many webmasters in the industry. They will even give some surfers the initial idea to join. I just think they represent no significant percentage of the reason most surfers have for becoming entrants. I'm more inclined to cite unemployment or the rising popularity of homeworking coupled with that of viewing porn.

So we do agree really :)

oh yes, I absolutely agree with that point.. and that's why I said I was getting off topic.. which I was :)

[Alphawolf]

Well, I don't see the average tom dick and harry getting into adult, but I could see more techie people doing it...like I did.

It helps to have some actual web design under your belt.

Actually, the amount of boards and free articles was actually a barrier to me.

I wondered WHY on earth there was so much information. So many boards..made my little noggin spin.

I posted a note on webmasterworld.com asking if anyone was in adult or something. Linkster responded via stickymail (I know forget is webmasterworld nick) and I asked him which board is most like webmasterworld for the adult industry.

He pointed me here. :)

I don't think any amount of new webmaster's in adult would effect 'us' too much.

Look at how many sites get rejected right now. Nearly 50% of all submissions are rejected on Link Lists.

With new webmasters, that number would just rise and they'll all be partners which is how it's going.

There's always room for people who truly want to dig in and learn.

My .02 :D

[stev0]

For everyone 1 new webmaster that starts in this industry there is probably 100 new people surfing porn... More big link lists will pop up and people submitting quality free sites and galleries will still get listed.

I just started submitting TGP galleries a couple weeks ago, so im new (in that area at least:) ). And already i've had a few of them email me partner accounts without even having to ask. It's in the owners best interest to keep the good submitters around, no matter how new they are.

TGP's and link lists will fail without good submitters, and submitters will fail without good TGP's and link lists.

[McSpike]

I agree with Cleo.

kristian mentioned "low knowledge requirment". I have to very much disagree. You can actually start making a difference and with it serious cash when you have a lot of knowledge/experience.

Only few will really make it today and that makes this industry just like any other. There is some difference tho. Internet is an evolving medium and there's space for new ideas/solutions. Yet for that you need knowledge.

Knowledge is power.
Work smarter, not harder.

[Jollyperv]

I wonder how this new "Make A $1000 A Day Being an Adult Webmaster" Spam is gonna affect things. Anyone else getting these? Every time I get one (lately it's been about 3 a day) my heart sinks a little bit. I'd like to sit that asshole down and tell him to just spam mortgages or fake penis pills like everyone else.

On the bright side, think of this...for every newbie that tries to make a quick buck, there's another one that's given up after 2 months and realized that the amount of work one has to put into this business is staggering.

[kristian]

Originally posted by McSpike
I agree with Cleo.

kristian mentioned "low knowledge requirment". I have to very much disagree. You can actually start making a difference and with it serious cash when you have a lot of knowledge/experience.

Only few will really make it today and that makes this industry just like any other. There is some difference tho. Internet is an evolving medium and there's space for new ideas/solutions. Yet for that you need knowledge.

Knowledge is power.
Work smarter, not harder.

To the average surfer in almost 2005, learning how to build galleries and free sites is little challenge. Anyone with enough time on their hands can acquire the requisite skills to create, submit, and earn at least a modest income. These fundaments have a low knowledge requirement.

Now, developing finese, implementing ground-breaking ideas and marketing strategies, well these are something else entirely. 5 years or more of experience would be beneficial, as would a college degree in a related discipline.

So, you don't disagree with me, since you have not fully understood what I'm saying. Sorry to be so harsh. :)

[kristian]

Originally posted by Alphawolf
Well, I don't see the average tom dick and harry getting into adult, but I could see more techie people doing it...like I did.

It helps to have some actual web design under your belt.

Actually, the amount of boards and free articles was actually a barrier to me.

I wondered WHY on earth there was so much information. So many boards..made my little noggin spin.

I posted a note on webmasterworld.com asking if anyone was in adult or something. Linkster responded via stickymail (I know forget is webmasterworld nick) and I asked him which board is most like webmasterworld for the adult industry.

He pointed me here. :)

I don't think any amount of new webmaster's in adult would effect 'us' too much.

Look at how many sites get rejected right now. Nearly 50% of all submissions are rejected on Link Lists.

With new webmasters, that number would just rise and they'll all be partners which is how it's going.

There's always room for people who truly want to dig in and learn.

My .02 :D

You are the classic example of how a newbie in late 2004 can arrive, learn, and begin to prosper. I have no doubt you'll achieve every one of your goals.

[Chop Smith]

Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. Often, a newbie will register a domain, get a $9.95 host, grab sponsor content and built a gallery. He is overjoyed because The Hun lists the gallery. The bubble burst when he gets one sale and discovers that his $9.95 host is wanting an additional couple of hundred from bandwidth usage. Not many survive this experience and those that do usually get out when they graduate from college.

Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

As stated by Amadman, stricter rules, no freehosts, partner accounts makes it more difficult to enter this business. In my opinion, the submitter is an endangered species especially if you consider all of the hosted galleries and free sites provided by sponsors.

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. Often, a newbie will register a domain, get a $9.95 host, grab sponsor content and built a gallery. He is overjoyed because The Hun lists the gallery. The bubble burst when he gets one sale and discovers that his $9.95 host is wanting an additional couple of hundred from bandwidth usage. Not many survive this experience and those that do usually get out when they graduate from college.

Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.

As stated by Amadman, stricter rules, no freehosts, partner accounts makes it more difficult to enter this business. In my opinion, the submitter is an endangered species especially if you consider all of the hosted galleries and free sites provided by sponsors.

I agree with you on the whole. :)

I don't agree that submitters are an endangered species.

Submitters are both a source of income and content-variety for webmasters.

[Alphawolf]

Originally posted by kristian
You are the classic example of how a newbie in late 2004 can arrive, learn, and begin to prosper. I have no doubt you'll achieve every one of your goals.

|shake|

Actually, had I not had the peeps of this board to guide me, I'd be fuckin' clueless.

BTW, did you have any knowledge at all on designing websites before you started?

[kristian]

Originally posted by Alphawolf
|shake|
BTW, did you have any knowledge at all on designing websites before you started?

Well, as you now know, there's designing websites and there's designing adult websites. I built my first site when I was about 22, about 7 years ago. It was for a hotel in llandudno, north wales. Favour for a friend. Did it in my spare time while at uni for a bit of a laugh. Anyway, some other hotels asked me, then a flooring contractor. Put an end to it after the flooring contractor because it was eating up my time. I'm too ashamed to show the sites :D

[amadman]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Boards, especially this one, do not contribute to the over-saturation problem. Actually, most link list and TGP owners serve to police the industry. Face it, sponsors push the affiliates, link list and TGP owners regulate them.


How true chop!

[Chop Smith]

Originally posted by kristian
II don't agree that submitters are an endangered species.

Submitters are both a source of income and content-variety for webmasters.

Perhaps 'endangered' was a bit strong. Sure there will always be submitters, but most will probably be 'preferred'. In my opinion the dishonest submitters continue to push link lists and TGPs toward partner accounts.

How does submitters a source of income for link list and TGPs? I agree in principle that they offer a content-variety. However, assume that you own a large link list (PR5+) and going to list say 100 free sites per day. Further, assume that there are 100 new hosted free sites available each day. Also, assume that these 100 hosted free sites follow your rules and contain fresh content. Are you going to list, the hosted free sites where you receive all of the revenue share for sign ups or are you going to list the submitters' sites where your receive no income for sign ups?

[SirMoby]

The weak dollar makes this market less appealing to many Europeans then it did BW (before W).

What do you think would happen if Tommy, GG or Shemp entered the business today? Do you think they would fail or do you think they're smart enough and motivated enough to find a way to make money? Maybe it was easier for them to start in 1997 but I bet they'd still make it to the top if they started today.

It's the same way with any maturing business. Profit margins will always narrow and it will always take more effort to make a sale. That's just what happens when businesses mature.

We will survive.

[Alphawolf]

Originally posted by kristian
Well, as you now know, there's designing websites and there's designing adult websites. I built my first site when I was about 22, about 7 years ago. It was for a hotel in llandudno, north wales. Favour for a friend. Did it in my spare time while at uni for a bit of a laugh. Anyway, some other hotels asked me, then a flooring contractor. Put an end to it after the flooring contractor because it was eating up my time. I'm too ashamed to show the sites :D

Yeah. Actually, there's a difference between being a designer and being a good online sales person.

I see a fair number of good designs that are pretty, but all the advertising is so well blended by the design that the sales effect is lost.

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Perhaps 'endangered' was a bit strong. Sure there will always be submitters, but most will probably be 'preferred'. In my opinion the dishonest submitters continue to push link lists and TGPs toward partner accounts.

How does submitters a source of income for link list and TGPs? I agree in principle that they offer a content-variety. However, assume that you own a large link list (PR5+) and going to list say 100 free sites per day. Further, assume that there are 100 new hosted free sites available each day. Also, assume that these 100 hosted free sites follow your rules and contain fresh content. Are you going to list, the hosted free sites where you receive all of the revenue share for sign ups or are you going to list the submitters' sites where your receive no income for sign ups?

I fucking hate disagreeing with you Chop, because I know you're as smart as they come. :)

You asked me a question, so I'll answer. I agree with what you say in "theory". However, your hypothesis relies on the quality of freehosted sites / galleries being equal to that of prefered submissions. If this were indeed true, I would entirely agree. However, freehosted galleries / sites suffer from being over-used.

Surfer submissions provide the variety that enable tgps / link lists to differentiate themselves. Showing new and exciting content will generate far more revenue, I believe, than populating your sites with stale, over-used content that your competition is also using.

[kristian]

Originally posted by SirMoby
The weak dollar makes this market less appealing to many Europeans then it did BW (before W).

What do you think would happen if Tommy, GG or Shemp entered the business today? Do you think they would fail or do you think they're smart enough and motivated enough to find a way to make money? Maybe it was easier for them to start in 1997 but I bet they'd still make it to the top if they started today.

It's the same way with any maturing business. Profit margins will always narrow and it will always take more effort to make a sale. That's just what happens when businesses mature.

We will survive.

I don't want to take over this thread and reply to everything, but I totally agree with what you say.

I come from a nice country and have a nice roof over my head. One thing I like about this industry is the idea that somewhere, in some less fortunate country, a hard worker can find an industry that will feed him and his family, even now entering 2005.

[GeorgeTH]

Originally posted by Greenguy
Originally posted by Cleo
Gold rush is over, industry is full.
...and has been since 2000 :D Unfortunately sooo true
|brick |usuck|

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Some of us post-2000 folks are stubborn and just won't go away. Based on the amount earned most should have gotten out a long time ago. I compare the failure rate of this business with that of 'mom and pop' restaurants. It is extremely high. I think as many get out as get in. True: I would be getting out completely IF I had an alternative source of income!
On the other hand I know of a lot of established webmasters who got out this or last year, simply because the earnings weren't what they used to be.

It's getting rather frustrating, and as an overseas webmaster being hit by falling US$ and falling conversions it's a double whammy!

Just lucky that I invested my adultsite earnings in real estate before our local boom started. That made me better money than I earned from porn in recent years.

I would start another business but where I live commercial rents are outragous, so setting up a shop-front business is rather hard, too! About 6 months ago I thought I was actually onto something, but then the supplier pulled the plug just before I was about to sign a lease...

[Chop Smith]

Originally posted by kristian
I fucking hate disagreeing with you Chop....

Kristian, disagreeing is good. We all learn from each others' opinion.

What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"|jester|

[kristian]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
Kristian, disagreeing is good. We all learn from each others' opinion.

What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"|jester|

I like that one |jester|

[SirMoby]

Originally posted by Chop Smith
What is it? "Opinions are lke assholes. Everyone has one"|jester|
And some are really nice while others stink |jester|

[Linkster]

Its interesting that you post this topic - in the last few days Ive had the TV on and noticed quite a few mainstream ads coming on about starting your own home-based internet biz - of course from the domains they list these are just the affiliate scams to get layers built up under them but if they are making enough to advertise on tv they are obviously making out pretty good.

I dont think the original premise of 1 mill new "adult" wms is a good one but I can see that happening on the non-adult side within two years - and some of that blending/overflowing over to the adult side - and it would be in my interest (if not everyones) to be ready for those newbie WMs with plenty of resources :)

I do think that anyone who has the gumption and will stick to the grindstone for a year with no exception - AND LISTENS TO ADVICE - has every reason to succeed in this biz and be making 100k at least some time in the second year. Ive seen it happen way too many times - and even recent WMs.

I also have to kind of agree with Tia - although I may be reading something into what she's saying - there are a lot of sources of adult biz income that have nothing whatsoever to do with TGP of LLs and its a lot of money sitting there - and plenty of new surfers every day to work those plans on

[stuveltje]

i one million of newbies pop in, 100 newbies will be left after a year i think, its a shame i saw alot of newbies go pooffff i still cant understand that, why i am still here and they are not???

[graphicsbytia]

Originally posted by Linkster


I also have to kind of agree with Tia - although I may be reading something into what she's saying - there are a lot of sources of adult biz income that have nothing whatsoever to do with TGP of LLs and its a lot of money sitting there - and plenty of new surfers every day to work those plans on

Yes Linkster, that's what I was pointing out, even though I didn't actually come out and say it.

A newbie coming to a resource site looking for information on how to obtain traffic sees almost nothing but advice to use link lists and tgp.

I'm saying that this is something that unfortunately hurts the industry as a whole, because all that newbie traffic not only goes into the pockets of the link list and tgp owners, but it puts a flood of free porn on the market that doesn't pay for itself. In turn that hurts everyone in the long run.

I'm not saying that's a dishonest thing, I'm just saying that resource sites aren't as helpful as they appear to be, because they are most generally run by people looking for newbie traffic for their link lists and tgps.

It's a business, and the purpose of the business isn't to help people.. it's to make money .. period

Let me also say that link lists and tgp can be very profitable if used correctly, but it takes a long time to learn how to do this.

When I take on clients for consultation, I never advise them to use link lists and tgps in the beginning. I advise them to make free sites with a very small amount of content and make a LOT of them. To me this is a very sound way to not only learn how to make sites, but is a very good investment, as any traffic they produce is always theirs free and clear forever.

[KCat]

I joined an already saturated market in 2000 & have watched countless new webmasters come & go since then. This concern is nothing new.

A million new webmasters might try to get into the biz, but it doesn't mean very many will stay or be successful enough to do it full time. Personally, I think the next big shift in adult will be companies merging & pushing the small guys out. 5 years from now I wouldn't be surprised to see less webmasters than we have now.

[pornrex]

I have to agree 100% with KCat.

With the recent push for partner accounts, and more stringent approval criteria, the WM business is getting tougher and tougher, and it will continue to get even more tough as time goes by.

I started in Dec of 2003 and only in the past few months have I figured out and learned enough where I feel comfortable and confident I can achieve my goals.

Unfortunately, due to poor health lately, I just don't have the stamina that I used to have a few short months ago.


|sad|

[GeorgeTH]

Originally posted by KCat
Personally, I think the next big shift in adult will be companies merging & pushing the small guys out. 5 years from now I wouldn't be surprised to see less webmasters than we have now. Yep! Unfortunately the trend is favouring the "traffic-haves" who deal among themselves and make it harder and harder for people who don't have the time/money/resources to brake into the market - it's getting the same as in just any big biz...

[Jel]

I also started in Dec 2003. I noticed a few others starting out the same time I did, only a couple of those are still around, yet there are probably millions of new surfers. While I got in late (damn, I even had the opportunity back in about '99 or so) and will probably never make the kind of money people who have been around since that time will, I'm doing OK :)

I think that as in any other business, most of the time those who are determined will succeed, those who think this is some sort of get rich quick scheme will fall by the wayside.

I'm more concerned with the growing number of cheaters, than the growing number of new webmasters in it as genuine newbies.

There is still an enormous growth to be had in the online industry, and with that naturally comes the porn side of it. I'm just glad I got in, and I'll be here to stay :D

[Trax]

If 90% of you morons would stop putting

"CLICK HERE TO EARN BIG $$$$$$$$$$"

links on your websites there wouldn't be such a problem.

[Greenguy]

Originally posted by Trax
If 90% of you morons would stop putting

"CLICK HERE TO EARN BIG $$$$$$$$$$"

links on your websites there wouldn't be such a problem. That's actually quite funny |jester|

I'll never understand why webmasters put links to affiliate programs on free sites & galleries.

[Robato]

I'll never understand why webmasters put links to affiliate programs on free sites & galleries.

well I did that for about a month 3 or 4 years ago and had about 200 affiates sign up in about a week.

granted 90% were garbage, but I had a few kick ass affiliates who brought me lots of sales.

[SlickRick]

I'd have to guess-ta-mate that .5 (1/2%) of newbies that get in this industry fail after 3-6 months because they are not making sales, and are tickled pink when they get listed with say the hun. and pull 30K in hits for a few days.

A newbie can make some money if they want to sink cash into their business (at least 2.5- 5K or more) buying traffic, good SE placement, and a lot of homework (Reading and self education).

And not hope they make a mint from their sales. Its not a get rich over night anymore. its long hours all the time.

but thats my opinion.

[Slinx]

It is like in every mainstream industry now: If you expect the fast buck, you will fail. If you can manage some projects and know what you are doing, you can earn some money.

[Boogie]

I'm no expert but here is my full opinion. Just be aware that it does repeat a bit of whats said above.

More entrants into the industry means its harder to get a peice of the table scraps. Right now it takes one of two things to become successfull in the industry as far as I can tell.

First off there are contacts. Knowing the right people, getting the right partner accounts, getting the right link swaps and the right traffic for nothing more than a pat on the back. This isnt easy.

The second way is generating traffic by spending money, then taking that money and spending it again to make more traffic, repeating this until you've created a solid traffic flow.

So, the more webmasters there are, the more competition for traffic, the more people have to fight for their traffic.

Supply VS Demand means prices on sold traffic rise, TGP listings become more expensive, and the number of pages the big guys list becomes a smaller percentage.

It all reaches a point where it becomes difficult or impossible for a new person to break in and still make a profit, as long as payouts remain relatively the same.

All the while the people who already had the traffic all along or their close contacts are the ones that make the real money, because their outgoing cash is much lower than that of newbie webmaster and they continue to kick ass and take names.

Using GG as an example:

So, 1million new people starting monday or whatever? That's 1 million more submitters a day to his site?

First he'd have to require access for signups, via the Dangerdave model (he was the first I saw using it). Then he'd probably give away accounts to his current contacts. Then he'd start charging newbie webmasters for accounts to hire more people to review.

Then he'd ban ad naseum and only list the most rediculously 'best' sites, leaving those who arent creating perfection out in the street.

And this happens everywhere, tommy's, the hun, you name it.

Eventually the industry CAN reach this boiling point. I say its not too far off.

[kingdough]

Originally posted by Cleo
Gold rush is over, industry is full.

Already way too much "samples" available and it hurts sales. Already way too many people submitting their stuff to be listed so it is hard to get listed.

gallery submitters = free advertising

if all a site has to offer a customer
is the pics they can see by visiting enough tgps,
then the site doesnt have enough to offer.

if a site is jam-packed with features
then flooding the world with sample galleries
is like mcdonalds running ads in every country -
it draws people into their restaurants.

so, doesnt matter how many "webmasters" enter,
they are just helping provide free advertising.

|violin|

[Pusher]

It seems to me all we need to do is get the 1 million new webmasters to spend most of their time on boards like this one, and they'll have very little time to actually work and succeed in the biz |jester|

[GeorgeTH]

Does actually anybody has reliable figures if the overall money spend on porn went up or down in recent years?

I did some stuff today which was interesting to this thread:
as many of you know I had to shut down my TGPs late last year for family reasons - today I went and cleaned out my emails (long overdue!) and cross-checked all the mails where people had approached me for a trade:
· about 70% of the sites were down
· almost ½ of the domains actually didn't exist anymore
· none of the remainders had any decent traffic!
= there's a good number of your newbies gone again!

Since I checked traffic for some sites (I am still looking for trades...) I also looked at Alexa's figures for established sites:
· almost every established site I can think of is down on traffic, either compared to 2002, or to late 2003!
= no wonder that TGPs are now charging for listings - I guess it's an important decision to substitute falling advertising revenue!

The other interesting thing: many TGPs actually went down in traffic right after they introduced paid submission spots! Question: lack of variety making them less attractive to surfers?

So where do the surfers go now?


edit: I have to go back to boring bookkeeping - just any excuse to get away from it would have done it - LOL!

[kingdough]

Originally posted by SlickRick
Its not a get rich over night anymore. its long hours all the time.

i end up telling the guys on my team this non-stop. they'll work hard for a week and then go, well where's my cut for that site? haha

i say, building the site is the easy part..

[kingdough]

Originally posted by GeorgeTH
Does actually anybody has reliable figures if the overall money spend on porn went up or down in recent years?

these are the best stats i've ever found on porn
surfers. of course they were compiled by some idiot
trying to ban porn, but still they are good stats:

http://www.nationalcoalition.org/stat.html
EDIT: they took down that link. here's another:
http://www.webtech4.com/stats.htm


- 40 million people in the US are sexually involved
with the internet

- 25% of search engine requests are porn related

- 72 million internet users visit porn sites per year


etc etc...

[Robato]

Odd.....

-94 percent of Americans believe a ban on Internet pornography should be legal
Statistics on Internet Pornography.

yet....

-72 million Internet users visit pornography web sites per year
Pornography Statistics 2003.

yet the US population is only 294,932,376


Im gunna have to cry bullshit on some of those stats

[kingdough]

Originally posted by Robato
Im gunna have to cry bullshit on some of those stats

haha true.

well i believe the positive stats
like % of search requests,
total surfers etc

they wouldnt inflate those
cuz theyre trying to make it look bad.

nevertheless,
theers a lot of porn surfers out there
and more log on every day

[Mr.Who]

My survey shows that there are no more than 5 000 free sites with traffic over 1k daily in the whole internet. They roll more than 140 million daily traffic. So if the population of the eart is 5 000 million and half of them are male I think there is a potential :D

[terry]

I also think more people will try to make a buck but as usual the newbie will see its not as easy as he thinks and leave.. then a new one will come along and maybe he will make bank ... I guess it will all even out in the end.

But, I also think that its getting harder and harder to even make a cent, without first spending your life savings... a huge risk that I tell all newbies not to take. Paid spots, partner accounts, 2257, etc etc etc.

Hats off to a newbie that can make it coming in today.. without connections ;-)

Terry

[Linkster]

Originally posted by Mr.Who
My survey shows that there are no more than 5 000 free sites with traffic over 1k daily in the whole internet. They roll more than 140 million daily traffic. So if the population of the eart is 5 000 million and half of them are male I think there is a potential :D

Id like to see this survey - if you are basing it on your sites numbers Id say thats way off - as I can see a huge amount of sites I know have more than 50k daily that arent listed - and I only looked at one smaller niche

I also would have to say that there are more on the order of 30-40k sites that have more than 1k traffic a day - and thats just on the adult side of things not counting things like sextoys, video sales and pills.

[Mr.Who]

I will agree with you Linkster that there are more free sites out there. My survey include only TGPs and I can ashure you 95% of them are listed in my database. Yes sites like yours are not listed there but you must agree that there are no many sites of this type. TGPs are the major players on the free market or I am wrong? A can say also with 90% assurance that all the free sites no mather how much traffic they have are no more than 20 000.

[GeorgeTH]

Originally posted by Mr.Who
I will agree with you Linkster that there are more free sites out there. [...] TGPs are the major players on the free market or I am wrong?I can tell you that there are a good number of gallery posters who are much larger than most TGPs ever dream of; some groups employ a decent number of submitters to get niche galleries into every conceivable link list and TGP site... Many gallery posters make it into the top 20,000 on Alexa; yes, they might be people who have a TGP running on the side (who wouldn't with sponsor hosted galleries and hugh 404 traffic from galleries?), but their main biz is galleries...

[Linkster]

Originally posted by Mr.Who
My survey include only TGPs and I can ashure you 95% of them are listed in my database. Yes sites like yours are not listed there but you must agree that there are no many sites of this type. TGPs are the major players on the free market or I am wrong? A can say also with 90% assurance that all the free sites no mather how much traffic they have are no more than 20 000.
Well - I was talking about TGPs - I can see that mine is not listed as well as 10 others in my niche and I know for a fact that some of the ones Im talking about do over 100k a day - TGPs that is.
I also know that there are many linklists that do over 20k a day - as well as link dumps, SE free sites, AVS hubs etc.
But I was just commenting on the TGPs you have listed - you are definitely missing quite a few big ones in one niche - and a quick look at some other niches showed the same thing

[Mr.Who]

Thats right. I missed a few about (5-10%) but I have all the other :D